Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown

Sung-Po Chao

doi:10.1016/j.cjph.2021.01.007

Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown

Chin J Phys. 2021 Apr:70:170-181. doi: 10.1016/j.cjph.2021.01.007. Epub 2021 Jan 28.

Author

Sung-Po Chao¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Physics, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung 82444, Taiwan, R.O.C.

Abstract

Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection is spread under lockdown. The economic cost due to the loss of workforce and incurred medical expenses is evaluated with a simple model. We find the best strategy, meaning the smallest economic cost for the entire course of the pandemic, is to keep the strict lockdown as long as possible.

Keywords: COVID-19; Economy; Lockdown; SIRD Model.