Phosphorus (P) is the key in maintaining food security and ecosystem functions. Population growth and economic development have increased the demand for phosphate rocks. China has gradually developed from zero phosphate mining to the world's leading P miner, fertilizer, and agricultural producer since 1949. China released policies, such as designating phosphate rock as a strategic resource, promoting eco-agricultural policies, and encouraging the use of solid wastes produced in mining and the phosphorus chemical industry as construction materials. However, methodological and data gaps remain in the mapping of the long-term effects of policies on P resource efficiency. Here, P resource efficiency can be represented by the potential of the P cycle to concentrate or dilute P as assessed by substance flow analysis (SFA) complemented by statistical entropy analysis (SEA). P-flow quantification over the past 70 years in China revealed that both resource utilization and waste generation peaked around 2015, with 20 and 11 Mt of mined and wasted P, respectively. Additionally, rapidly increasing aquaculture wastewater has exacerbated pollution. The resource efficiency of the Chinese P cycle showed a U-shaped change with an overall improvement of 22.7%, except for a temporary trough in 1975. The driving force behind the efficiency decline was the roaring phosphate fertilizer industry, as confirmed by the sharp increase in P flows for both resource utilization and waste generation from the mid-1960s to 1975. The positive driving forces behind the 30.7% efficiency increase from 1975 to 2018 were the implementation of the resource conservation policy, downstream pollution control, and, especially, the circular agro-food system strategy. However, not all current management practices improve the P resource efficiency. Mixing P industry waste with construction materials and the development of aquaculture to complement offshore fisheries erode P resource efficiency by 2.12% and 9.19%, respectively. With the promotion of a zero-waste society in China, effective P-cycle management is expected.
Keywords: agricultural policy; aquaculture wastewater; china; phosphogypsum; phosphorus; resource efficiency; statistical entropy analysis; substance flow analysis.