The rapid reduction in the cost of renewable energy has motivated the transition from carbon-intensive chemical manufacturing to renewable, electrified, and decarbonized technologies. Although electrified chemical manufacturing technologies differ greatly, the feasibility of each electrified approach is largely related to the energy efficiency and capital cost of the system. Here, we examine the feasibility of ammonia production systems driven by wind and photovoltaic energy. We identify the optimal regions where wind and photovoltaic electricity production may be able to meet the local demand for ammonia-based fertilizers and set technology targets for electrified ammonia production. To compete with the methane-fed Haber-Bosch process, electrified ammonia production must reach energy efficiencies of above 20% for high natural gas prices and 70% for low natural gas prices. To account for growing concerns regarding access to water, geospatial optimization considers water stress caused by new ammonia facilities, and recommendations ensure that the identified regions do not experience an increase in water stress. Reducing water stress by 99% increases costs by only 1.4%. Furthermore, a movement toward a more decentralized ammonia supply chain driven by wind and photovoltaic electricity can reduce the transportation distance for ammonia by up to 76% while increasing production costs by 18%.
Keywords: ammonia production; decarbonization; decentralized supply chain; electrified chemical manufacturing; geospatial optimization; techno-economic modeling; variable renewable electricity; water stress mitigation.