While phosphorus fertilizers contribute to food security, part of the introduced phosphorus dissipates into water bodies leading to eutrophication. At the same time, conventional mineral phosphorus sources are increasingly scarce. Therefore, closing phosphorus cycles reduces pollution while decreasing trade dependence and increasing food security. A major part of the phosphorus loss occurs during food processing. In this article, we combine a systematic literature review with investment and efficiency analysis to investigate the financial feasibility of recovering phosphorus from dairy processing wastewater. This wastewater is particularly rich in phosphorus, but while recovery technologies are readily available, they are rarely adopted. We calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing in phosphorus recycling technology for a representative European dairy processing company producing 100,000 tonnes of milk per year. We develop sensitivity scenarios and adjust the parameters accordingly. Applying struvite precipitation, the NPV can be positive in two scenarios. First, if the phosphorus price is high (1.51 million EUR) or second if phosphorus recovery is a substitute for mandatory waste disposal (1.48 million EUR). However, for a variety of methodological specifications, the NPV is negative, mainly because of high input costs for chemicals and energy. These trade-offs between off-setting pollution and reducing energy consumption imply, that policy makers and investors should consider the energy source for phosphorus recovery carefully.
Keywords: Efficiency analysis; Investment analysis; Phosphorus recovery; Systematic literature review; Technology adoption.
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