Predicting carob tree physiological parameters under different irrigation systems using Random Forest and Planet satellite images

Abstract

Introduction: In the context of climate change, monitoring the spatial and temporal variability of plant physiological parameters has become increasingly important. Remote spectral imaging and GIS software have shown effectiveness in mapping field variability. Additionally, the application of machine learning techniques, essential for processing large data volumes, has seen a significant rise in agricultural applications. This research was focused on carob tree, a drought-resistant tree crop spread through the Mediterranean basin. The study aimed to develop robust models to predict the net assimilation and stomatal conductance of carob trees and to use these models to analyze seasonal variability and the impact of different irrigation systems.

Methods: Planet satellite images were acquired on the day of field data measurement. The reflectance values of Planet spectral bands were used as predictors to develop the models. The study employed the Random Forest modeling approach, and its performances were compared with that of traditional multiple linear regression.

Results and discussion: The findings reveal that Random Forest, utilizing Planet spectral bands as predictors, achieved high accuracy in predicting net assimilation (R² = 0.81) and stomatal conductance (R² = 0.70), with the yellow and red spectral regions being particularly influential. Furthermore, the research indicates no significant difference in intrinsic water use efficiency between the various irrigation systems and rainfed conditions. This work highlighted the potential of combining satellite remote sensing and machine learning in precision agriculture, with the goal of the efficient monitoring of physiological parameters.

Keywords: Random Forest regression; carob tree; machine learning; physiology modeling; remote sensing.