We propose a novel methane leakage rate remote sensor that combines a single-photon avalanche diode detector with a near-infrared 1653.7 nm low-power laser. The proposed M sequence and triangle wave signal modulation method simultaneously realizes the detection of methane leakage and target point clouds. Innovatively, the sensor's methane concentration and leakage rate quantification ability were simulated by combining the Gaussian plume diffusion model and the Risley prism. The effects of the prism rotation ratio, wind speed, leakage rate, atmospheric stability (AS), target reflectivity, signal averaging period, and concentration spatial interpolation method on leakage rate are discussed. When plume methane concentrations reduce from 10,000 to 500 ppm·m, the relative concentration bias rise from 1% to 30%, the absolute concentration bias is approximately 100 ppm·m. Two spatial concentration interpolation methods introduced leakage rate bias ranging from 6%-25%. For a low AS, the leakage rate bias under the cubic interpolation method was small (approximately 1.6%). In addition, when the initial leakage rate increased from 100 to 1,000 mg/s, the leakage rate bias was approximately 20% smaller.