Microbial nitrogen metabolism is a complicated and key process in mediating environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in rivers. However, the interactive drivers of microbial nitrogen metabolism in rivers have not been identified. Here, we analyze the microbial nitrogen metabolism patterns in 105 rivers in China driven by 26 environmental and socioeconomic factors using an interpretable causal machine learning (ICML) framework. ICML better recognizes the complex relationships between factors and microbial nitrogen metabolism than traditional linear regression models. Furthermore, tipping points and concentration windows were proposed to precisely regulate microbial nitrogen metabolism. For example, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) below tipping points of 6.2 and 4.2 mg/L easily reduce bacterial denitrification and nitrification, respectively. The concentration windows for NO3--N (15.9-18.0 mg/L) and DOC (9.1-10.8 mg/L) enabled the highest abundance of denitrifying bacteria on a national scale. The integration of ICML models and field data clarifies the important drivers of microbial nitrogen metabolism, supporting the precise regulation of nitrogen pollution and river ecological management.
Keywords: causal analysis; concentration window; ecological safety; machine learning; nitrogen metabolism; tipping point.