Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries

Jisoo A Kwon; Neil A Bretaña; Nadine Kronfli; Camille Dussault; Luke Grant; Jennifer Galouzis; Wendy Hoey; James Blogg; Andrew R Lloyd; Richard T Gray

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1279572

Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries

Front Public Health. 2024 Mar 15:12:1279572. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1279572. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Jisoo A Kwon¹, Neil A Bretaña², Nadine Kronfli^{3

4}, Camille Dussault³, Luke Grant⁵, Jennifer Galouzis⁵, Wendy Hoey⁶, James Blogg⁶, Andrew R Lloyd¹, Richard T Gray¹

Affiliations

¹ Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
² University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
³ Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada.
⁴ McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada.
⁵ Corrective Services NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁶ Justice Health Forensic Mental Health Network NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Abstract

Introduction: Correctional facilities are high-priority settings for coordinated public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. These facilities are at high risk of disease transmission due to close contacts between people in prison and with the wider community. People in prison are also vulnerable to severe disease given their high burden of co-morbidities.

Methods: We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the effect of various public health interventions, including vaccination, on the mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks, applying it to prisons in Australia and Canada.

Results: We found that, in the absence of any intervention, an outbreak would occur and infect almost 100% of people in prison within 20 days of the index case. However, the rapid rollout of vaccines with other non-pharmaceutical interventions would almost eliminate the risk of an outbreak.

Discussion: Our study highlights that high vaccination coverage is required for variants with high transmission probability to completely mitigate the outbreak risk in prisons.

Keywords: Australia; COVID-19; Canada; SARS-CoV-2; modeling; prison.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Developed Countries
Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
Humans
Pandemics / prevention & control
Prisons

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This study was funded by Corrective Services NSW. The Kirby Institute is funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and is affiliated with the Faculty of Medicine, UNSW Sydney.