Explainable artificial intelligence analysis of brachytherapy boost receipt in cervical cancer during the COVID-19 era

Abstract

Purpose: Brachytherapy is a critical component of the standard-of-care curative radiotherapy regimen for women with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC). However, existing literature suggests that many patients will not receive the brachytherapy boost. We used machine learning (ML) and explainable artificial intelligence to characterize this disparity.

Materials and methods: Patients with LACC diagnosed from 2004 to 2020 who received definitive radiation were identified in the National Cancer Database. Five ML models were trained to predict if a patient received a brachytherapy boost. The best-performing model was explained using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values. To identify trends that may be attributable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the previous analysis was repeated and limited to 2019 to 2020.

Results: A total of 37,564 patients with LACC were identified; 5799 were diagnosed from 2019 to 2020 (COVID cohort). Of these patients, 59.3% received a brachytherapy boost, with 76.4% of patients diagnosed in 2019 to 2020 receiving a boost. The random forest model achieved the best performance for both the overall and COVID cohorts. In the overall cohort, the most important predictive features were the year of diagnosis, stage, age, and insurance status. In the COVID cohort, the most important predictive features were FIGO stage, age, insurance status, and hospital type. Of the 26 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 during their course of radiotherapy, 19 (73.1%) received a brachytherapy boost.

Conclusions: A gradual increase in brachytherapy boost utilization has been noted, which did not seem to be significantly impacted by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. ML could be considered to identify patient populations where brachytherapy is underutilized, which can provide actionable feedback for improving access.

Keywords: Brachytherapy; Cervical cancer; Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI); Machine learning; SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP); Trends.