COVID-19 vaccination and the risk of autoimmune diseases: a Mendelian randomization study

Abstract

Background: In recent times, reports have emerged suggesting that a variety of autoimmune disorders may arise after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. However, causality and underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

Methods: We collected summary statistics of COVID-19 vaccination and 31 autoimmune diseases from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as exposure and outcome, respectively. Random-effects inverse variance weighting (IVW), MR Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode were used as analytical methods through Mendelian randomization (MR), and heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis were performed.

Results: We selected 72 instrumental variables for exposure (p < 5 × 10^-6; r2 < 0.001, genetic distance = 10,000 kb), and MR analyses showed that COVID-19 vaccination was causally associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) (IVW, OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.065-2.197, p = 0.026) and ulcerative colitis (UC) (IVW, OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.000-1.003, p = 0.039). If exposure was refined (p < 5 × 10^-8; r2 < 0.001, genetic distance = 10,000 kb), the associations became negative. No causality was found for the remaining outcomes. These results were robust to sensitivity and heterogeneity analyses.

Conclusion: Our study provided potential evidence for the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the risk of MS and UC occurrence, but it lacks sufficient robustness, which could provide a new idea for public health policy.

Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 vaccination; Mendelian randomization study; autoimmune diseases; immunity; multiple sclerosis; ulcerative colitis; vaccination.