Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

Huanbi Yue; Chunyang He; Qingxu Huang; Da Zhang; Peijun Shi; Enayat A Moallemi; Fangjin Xu; Yang Yang; Xin Qi; Qun Ma; Brett A Bryan

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3

Substantially reducing global PM_2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

Nat Commun. 2024 Mar 28;15(1):2729. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3.

Authors

Huanbi Yue^{1

2

3}, Chunyang He^{4

5

6

7}, Qingxu Huang^{1

3}, Da Zhang⁸, Peijun Shi^{1

3

9

10}, Enayat A Moallemi¹¹, Fangjin Xu^{1

3

12}, Yang Yang^{2

13}, Xin Qi¹⁴, Qun Ma¹⁵, Brett A Bryan¹⁶

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
² School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. hcy@bnu.edu.cn.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. hcy@bnu.edu.cn.
⁶ Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. hcy@bnu.edu.cn.
⁷ Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province & Beijing Normal University, Xining, China. hcy@bnu.edu.cn.
⁸ College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Yanbian University, Yanji, China. zhangda@ybu.edu.cn.
⁹ Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
¹⁰ Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province & Beijing Normal University, Xining, China.
¹¹ Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
¹² College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
¹³ Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
¹⁴ Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
¹⁵ School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China.
¹⁶ School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

Abstract

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM_2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM_2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM_2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants* / analysis
Air Pollutants* / toxicity
Air Pollution* / adverse effects
Air Pollution* / analysis
Conservation of Natural Resources
Delivery of Health Care
Environmental Pollution
Particulate Matter / adverse effects

Substances

Particulate Matter
Air Pollutants

Abstract

MeSH terms

Substances

Grants and funding