Cancer Risk in Graves Disease with Radioactive 131I Treatment: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Abstract

Radioactive ¹³¹I (RAI) therapy has potential effects for the treatment of Graves disease (GD). However, whether RAI therapy for GD increases cancer risk remains controversial in medicine and public health. We aimed to investigate whether the risk of cancer increases in patients with GD receiving RAI therapy compared with those who did not. Methods: We used the Korean National Health Insurance Service's National Health Information Database from 2004 to 2020 and defined GD as prescribing antithyroid drugs, RAI, or thyroidectomy as a treatment for GD (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, E05 group). We investigated the hazard ratios (HRs) of overall and site-specific cancers associated with RAI in patients with GD. Subsequent cancer was defined as a primary malignancy treated at least 1 y after RAI therapy. Results: In total, 10,737 patients with GD who received RAI therapy (7,193 women, 67.0%; mean age, 43.7 ± 13.4 y) were matched to 53,003 patients with GD who had never received RAI treatment (35,471 women, 66.9%; mean age, 43.8 ± 13.2 y) in a 1:4-5 ratio by age, sex, and health checkup data. The median follow-up duration was 8.7 y (interquartile range, 5.2-12.1 y), and the median cumulative RAI dose was 555 MBq (interquartile range, 370-630 MBq) in the RAI therapy group. During 2004-2020, the overall subsequent cancer rates were 5.66 and 5.84 per 1,000 person-years in the RAI and non-RAI groups, respectively, with an unadjusted HR of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.88-1.06); this remained at 0.96 (95% CI, 0.83-1.10) after adjustment for multiple clinical confounding factors. For cancer subtypes, the risk of leukemia was significantly increased, with an HR of 2.39 (95% CI, 1.17-4.91). However, a loss of statistical significance was observed after adjusting for confounding factors, which may be attributed to the limited number of absolute events. Moreover, cancer-specific mortality was not different between the RAI and the non-RAI groups, with an adjusted HR of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.66-1.47). Conclusion: This study identified that the overall cancer risk in patients with GD who received RAI therapy compared with those who did not was not significant in Korea. Further long-term studies are needed to determine the risks and advantages of RAI therapy in patients with GD.

Keywords: Graves disease; cancer risk; radioactive 131I therapy.