Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.
Keywords: Culex pipiens; Dirofilaria spp.; Ecological niche modeling; Greece; Infection risk; Projection.
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