China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases

Jie Ban; Jing Cheng; Can Zhang; Kailai Lu; Zhen Zhou; Zhao Liu; Yidan Chen; Can Wang; Wenjia Cai; Peng Gong; Yong Luo; Dan Tong; Jianlin Hu; Xinbiao Guo; Junwei Hao; Tiantian Li

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.006

China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM_2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases

One Earth. 2024 Mar 15;7(3):497-505. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.006.

Authors

Jie Ban^{1

2

3}, Jing Cheng⁴, Can Zhang^{1

2}, Kailai Lu^{1

2}, Zhen Zhou^{1

2}, Zhao Liu⁵, Yidan Chen⁶, Can Wang⁶, Wenjia Cai⁴, Peng Gong⁷, Yong Luo⁴, Dan Tong⁴, Jianlin Hu³, Xinbiao Guo⁸, Junwei Hao^{9

10

11}, Tiantian Li^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
² China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
³ Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (AEMPC), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
⁴ Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
⁵ School of Linkong Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Economics and Management, Beijing 100024, China.
⁶ State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
⁷ Department of Earth Sciences and Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 999077, China.
⁸ Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Beijing 100191, China.
⁹ Department of Neurology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Center for Neurological Disorders, No. 45 Changchun Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100053, China.
¹⁰ Key Laboratory for Neurodegenerative Diseases of Ministry of Education, No. 45 Changchun Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100053, China.
¹¹ Beijing Municipal Geriatric Medical Research Center, No. 45 Changchun Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100053, China.

Abstract

China's carbon-neutral target could have benefits for ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)-associated mortality. Although previous studies have researched such benefits, the potential impact on cardiovascular disease incidence burden is yet to be investigated thoroughly. Here, we first estimate the association between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and the incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) via a case-crossover study before projecting future changes in short-term PM_2.5-associated excess incidence across China from 2025 to 2060 under three different emission scenarios. We find that, compared to the 2015-2020 baseline, average PM_2.5 concentrations nationwide in 2060 under SSP119 (an approximation of a carbon-neutral scenario) are projected to decrease by 81.07%. The short-term PM_2.5-related excess incidence of stroke and CHD is projected to be reduced to 3,352 cases (95% confidence interval: 939, 5,738)-compared with 34,485 cases under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP245)-and is expected to be accompanied by a 95% reduction in the related economic burden. China's carbon-neutral policies are likely to bring health benefits for cardiovascular disease by reducing short-term PM_2.5-related incidence burden.

Keywords: ambient PM2.5; carbon neutral; cardiovascular disease; health benefit; incidence; projection; short-term exposure.