Global burden and future trends in psoriasis epidemiology: insights from the global burden of disease study 2019 and predictions to 2030

Abstract

Background: Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis.

Objective: This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990-2019.

Methods: Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development.

Results: In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = - 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40-64 years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by - 80.52% and - 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99).

Conclusion: This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies.

Keywords: Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model; Frontier analysis; Global burden of disease; Incidence; Psoriasis.