Climate change can significantly alter phytoplankton growth and proliferation, which would counteract restoration efforts to control algal blooms. However, the knowledge is limited about the quantitative evaluation of the causal effect of algal biomass resurgence in large shallow lakes where there is no significant improvement after long term lake restoration. Here, a bucket process-based phytoplankton dynamic model is developed to quantify the contributions of climate change and nutrients concentration changes to phytoplankton biomass resurgence after 2014 in hypereutrophic Lake Taihu, China. Compared to 2008-2014, the mean water temperature (WT) and the mean phosphate are higher, the mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the mean total suspended solids (TSS), and the mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are lower, during 2015-2020. Their contribution to algal biomass resurgence during 2015-2020 is WT (+58.7 %), PAR (-2.6 %), TSS (+23.2 %), DIN (-22.1 %) and phosphate (+42.7 %), respectively. Climate change (WT, PAR, and TSS), which contributed +64.9 % to the phytoplankton biomass resurgence, underscores the urgent need to continuously take more effective measures to reduce nutrient emissions to offset the effects of climate change in Lake Taihu and in other eutrophic lakes.
Keywords: Algal biomass resurgence; Climate change; Eutrophic shallow lake; Nutrient reductions measures; Process-based model.
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