Background and purpose: Given the substantial lack of knowledge, we aimed to assess clinical/dosimetry predictors of late hematological toxicity on patients undergoing pelvic-nodes irradiation (PNI) for prostate cancer (PCa) within a prospective multi-institute study.
Materials and methods: Clinical/dosimetry/blood test data were prospectively collected including lymphocytes count (ALC) at baseline, mid/end-PNI, 3/6 months and every 6 months up to 5-year after PNI. DVHs of the Body, ileum (BMILEUM), lumbosacral spine (BMLS), lower pelvis (BMPELVIS), and whole pelvis (BMTOT) were extracted. Current analysis focused on 2-year CTCAEv4.03 Grade ≥ 2 (G2+) lymphopenia (ALC < 800/μL). DVH parameters that better discriminate patients with/without toxicity were first identified. After data pre-processing to limit overfitting, a multi-variable logistic regression model combining DVH and clinical information was identified and internally validated by bootstrap.
Results: Complete data of 499 patients were available: 46 patients (9.2 %) experienced late G2+ lymphopenia. DVH parameters of BMLS/BMPELVIS/BMTOT and Body were associated to increased G2+ lymphopenia. The variables retained in the resulting model were ALC at baseline [HR = 0.997, 95 %CI 0.996-0.998, p < 0.0001], smoke (yes/no) [HR = 2.9, 95 %CI 1.25-6.76, p = 0.013] and BMLS-V ≥ 24 Gy (cc) [HR = 1.006, 95 %CI 1.002-1.011, p = 0.003]. When acute G3+ lymphopenia (yes/no) was considered, it was retained in the model [HR = 4.517, 95 %CI 1.954-10.441, p = 0.0004]. Performances of the models were relatively high (AUC = 0.87/0.88) and confirmed by validation.
Conclusions: Two-year lymphopenia after PNI for PCa is largely modulated by baseline ALC, with an independent role of acute G3+ lymphopenia. BMLS-V24 was the best dosimetry predictor: constraints for BMTOT (V10Gy < 1520 cc, V20Gy < 1250 cc, V30Gy < 850 cc), and BMLS (V24y < 307 cc) were suggested to potentially reduce the risk.
Keywords: Hematological toxicity; Lymphopenia; NTCP; Predictive models; Prostate cancer; Radiotherapy.
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