Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century

Somnath Bar; Prasenjit Acharya; Bikash Ranjan Parida; Srikanta Sannigrahi; Arabinda Maiti; Gunadhar Barik; Navneet Kumar

doi:10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w

Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Mar 19. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Somnath Bar¹, Prasenjit Acharya², Bikash Ranjan Parida³, Srikanta Sannigrahi⁴, Arabinda Maiti², Gunadhar Barik², Navneet Kumar^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO171BJ, UK.
² Department of Geography, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, 721101, West Bengal, India.
³ Department of Geoinformatics, School of Natural Resource Management, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, 853222, India. bikash.parida@cuj.ac.in.
⁴ School of Architecture, Planning, and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, RichviewDublin, Clonskeagh, Ireland.
⁵ Department of Ecology and Natural Resources Management, Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, 53113, Bonn, Germany.
⁶ Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), United Nations University, UN Campus, Platz Der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113, Bonn, Germany.

PMID: 38502265
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w

Abstract

The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001-2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km² year^-1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km² year^-1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km² year^-1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically.

Keywords: Anthropogenic activities; Burn area; Climate; Fire radiative power; Fire regime; Random Forest.