Synoptic-scale drivers of fire weather in Greece

Abstract

The identification of the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns which are associated with extreme fire weather is of great importance for developing early warning systems, management strategies, and for increasing awareness and preparedness of all the involved entities, including both the public and practitioners. Such a forecasting approach is currently missing in Greece and many other countries. Furthermore, considering climate projections over the Mediterranean, which indicate an environment more conducive to wildfire activity, the need for timely forecasting of extreme fire weather becomes increasingly urgent. Here, we present an alternative fire weather forecasting framework using ERA5 reanalysis data of atmospheric variables and fire weather indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) during the period June-October from 1979 to 2019. Within this framework, we define the critical fire weather patterns (CFWPs) of Greece associated with different levels of fire weather severity by applying Self-Organizing-Maps (SOMs) on mid-tropospheric geopotential height. We quantify the fire weather conditions associated with each CFWP. Using a set of CFFWIS indices and key fire weather variables, our SOM-based analysis reveals five distinct CFWPs linked to different levels and characteristics of fire weather severity. The lowest fire weather severity is associated with lower than average geopotential heights, and anomalous cold and moist weather. The highest fire weather severity is associated with higher than average geopotential heights, and anomalous hot, dry, and windy conditions, suggesting the potential for wind-driven wildfires. Our analysis yields elevated fire weather severity linked to a CFWP, when hot and dry conditions are accompanied by atmospheric instability, suggesting the potential for plume-driven wildfires and the potential for pyroconvection. The main advantage of this forecasting framework is that it could be used for providing valuable information regarding the upcoming fire weather conditions even up to 7-12 days in advance depending on the atmospheric predictability.

Keywords: Critical fire weather patterns; Early warning systems; Extreme fire weather; Fire weather; Forecasting.