A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Nilson Rodrigues da Silva; Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza; Gildriano Soares de Oliveira; Alisson da Silva Santana; Leandro Bacci; Gerson Adriano Silva; Edmond Joseph Djibril Victor Barry; Fernanda de Aguiar Coelho; Marcus Alvarenga Soares; Marcelo Coutinho Picanço; Renato Almeida Sarmento; Ricardo Siqueira da Silva

doi:10.3390/plants13040535

A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Plants (Basel). 2024 Feb 15;13(4):535. doi: 10.3390/plants13040535.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica do Sertão (DEAS), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), Rodovia Eng. Jorge Neto-Km 03, s/n, Nossa Senhora da Glória 49680-000, SE, Brazil.
² Departamento de Agronomia, Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro (IFTM Campus Uberlândia), Uberlândia 38400-970, MG, Brazil.
³ Programa de Pós Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil.
⁴ Departamento de Engenharia Agronômica (DEA), Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS), São Cristóvão 49100-000, SE, Brazil.
⁵ Laboratório de Entomologia e Fitopatologia, Universidade Estadual Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro (UENF), Campos dos Goytacazes 28013-602, RJ, Brazil.
⁶ Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Florestal, Universidade Federal dos Vales Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Campus JK, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil.
⁷ Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus UFV, Viçosa 36570-000, MG, Brazil.
⁸ Programa de Pós-Graduação em Produção Vegetal, Universidade Federal do Tocantins, Campus Gurupi, Gurupi 77402-970, TO, Brazil.

Abstract

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

Keywords: citrus; climate change; climatic factors; ecological niche model.

Grants and funding

We thank the “Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico” (CNPq), the “Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior” (CAPES)–Finance Code 001, and the “Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais” (FAPEMIG).