Measuring risk of renewable diesel production processes using a multi-criteria decision strategy

Abstract

This study proposes measuring the risk of five alternative renewable diesel production technologies using a multi-criteria decision matrix strategy. Evaluated criteria include environmental, economic, technological, social, and process safety risks. The subjective Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with stakeholder input provides criteria and sub-criteria weightings and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) ranks alternatives. Alternative renewable diesel options are Green Diesel from first, second, and third-generation feedstocks, Fischer-Tropsch Diesel from second-generation biomass, and the transesterification of vegetable oils (VO) to make biodiesel. This study is a response to an earlier work measuring the sustainability of the same renewable technologies. While the previous work indicated Fischer-Tropsch Diesel as the most sustainable, this current work indicated the process as the "most risky," suggesting that risk is a significant driver of decision making over sustainability, and newly developed decision tools should address both perspectives.

Keywords: Biodiesel; Bioeconomy; Chemical process industries; Multi-criteria decision matrix; Renewable diesel; Risk analysis.