Causal analysis of gastroesophageal reflux disease and esophageal cancer

Abstract

Patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) are more likely to develop esophageal cancer (EC). However, a causal relationship between the 2 has been difficult to determine. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the impact of GERD on EC using the Mendelian randomization (MR) method. The causal association between GERD and EC was analyzed based on 2 publicly available genetic summary datasets for the GERD cohort (129,080 cases vs 473,524 controls) and the EC cohort (740 cases vs 372,016 controls). The causal inference was mainly evaluated by the inverse variance weighted MR. The MR-Egger regression, MR Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier test, and leave-one-out test were used to confirm the sensitivity of the MR results. Possible interfering factors were excluded by multivariate MR (MVMR) analysis. We used 73 single nucleotide polymorphisms as instrumental variables. GERD was associated with increasing EC risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.001; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.002; P < .001), which was identified using the inverse variance weighted method. The sensitivity analysis also demonstrated similar results with the causal explanation, and major bias in genetic pleiotropy was not identified (intercept, 0.001; standard error, 0.001; P = .418). The multivariate MR analysis demonstrated the effect of GERD on EC even after excluding possible mediating factors (OR, 1.003; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.005; P = .012). This study confirmed that GERD has a causal effect on EC. Therefore, interventional measures are recommended to prevent EC.