Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Xin Chen; Fatema Kalyar; Abrar Ahmad Chughtai; Chandini Raina MacIntyre

doi:10.1111/risa.14291

Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Risk Anal. 2024 Mar 15. doi: 10.1111/risa.14291. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Xin Chen¹, Fatema Kalyar¹, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai², Chandini Raina MacIntyre^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
² School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
³ College of Public Service & Community Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.

PMID: 38488186
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14291

Abstract

The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; origin; pandemic; risk analysis.

Abstract

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