The risk of progression to advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) varies depending on the type of drusen. This retrospective longitudinal study included 248 eyes of 156 patients with pachydrusen without advanced AMD at baseline. Macular neovascularization (MNV) and geographic atrophy (GA) were evaluated. Risk factors for progression to advanced AMD were determined using multivariate Cox regression analysis. The mean age at baseline was 65.4 ± 9.1 years, and the mean follow-up duration was 6.40 ± 3.58 years. The mean total number of pachydrusen and macular pachydrusen were 4.10 ± 2.85 and 2.27 ± 1.81 per eye, respectively. Pachydrusen was accompanied by other types of drusen in 4.8% (12 eyes) of eyes at baseline. During follow-up, MNVs occurred in 2.8% (seven eyes), including polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV six eyes); however, no GA occurred. Regarding risk factors for progression to neovascular AMD, age (p = 0.023) and macular pigmentary changes (p = 0.014) were significantly associated with MNV development. The cumulative incidence of MNV was significantly higher in the group with macular pigmentary changes (17.39% vs. 0.57% at 10 years; p = 0.0005). The number of macular pachydrusen and the presence of MNV in the fellow eye did not show a statistically significant relationship with MNV development. Age and macular pigmentary changes are risk factors for MNV development in the eyes with pachydrusen. Eyes with pachydrusen appear to have a risk profile for advanced AMD that is different from that of AMD eyes with drusen or drusenoid deposits other than pachydrusen.
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