Purpose: Sleeve gastrectomy (SG) is a widely used and effective treatment for patients with obesity and comorbid metabolic abnormalities. No specialized tool is available to predict metabolic syndrome (MS) remission after SG. We presented a nomogram that evaluated the probability of MS remission in obese patients 1 year after SG.
Materials and methods: Patients with preoperative MS who underwent SG were enrolled in this retrospective study. They were divided into a training set and a validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of MS remission, and these predictors were included in the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate discrimination. Calibration was performed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The net benefits of the nomogram were evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results: Three hundred and eighteen patients with a median age of 34.0 years were analyzed. A training set and a validation set with 159 individuals each were established. A combination of age, preoperative high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated triglycerides and glycated hemoglobin level independently and accurately predicted MS remission. The nomogram included these factors. The discriminative ability was moderate in training and validation sets (Area under curve 0.800 and 0.727, respectively). The Hosmer-Lemeshow X2 value of the nomogram was 8.477 (P = 0.388) for the training set and 5.361 (P = 0.718) for the validation set, indicating good calibration. DCA showed the nomogram had clinical benefits in both datasets.
Conclusion: Our nomogram could accurately predict MS remission in Chinese patients with obesity 1 year after SG.
Keywords: Metabolic syndrome; Nomogram; Sleeve gastrectomy.
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.