Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and propagations influenced by climatic variability, LULC change, and human regulations

Yunyun Li; Yi Huang; Yanchun Li; Hongxue Zhang; Jingjing Fan; Qian Deng; Xuemei Wang

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-56526-z

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in meteorological and hydrological drought patterns and propagations influenced by climatic variability, LULC change, and human regulations

Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 12;14(1):5965. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-56526-z.

Authors

Yunyun Li¹, Yi Huang², Yanchun Li², Hongxue Zhang³, Jingjing Fan⁴, Qian Deng², Xuemei Wang²

Affiliations

¹ Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, 621000, China. liyunyun@mtc.edu.cn.
² Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, 621000, China.
³ School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, China. hongxue@neau.edu.cn.
⁴ College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China.

Abstract

This study aims to quantify meteorological-hydrological drought propagations and examine the potential impacts by climatic variability, LULC change (LULC), and human regulations. An integrated observation-modeling framework quantifies drought propagation intervals and assesses mechanisms influencing hydrological droughts. Meteorological droughts are characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and hydrological droughts are assessed through the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) across diverse climatic zones. Cross-correlation analysis between SPEI and SSI time series identifies the lag time associated with the highest correlation as the drought propagation interval. Mechanisms are investigated via a coupled empirical-process modeling framework incorporating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Discrepancies between simulated and observed SSI time series help quantify the extent of human regulation impacts on hydrological drought characteristics and propagation. The Yellow River Basin (YRB), divided into six subzones based on climate characteristics, is selected as the case study. Key findings include: (1) Meteorological droughts were extremely severe across most YRB during the 1990s, while the 2000s showed some mitigation primarily due to precipitation increases. (2) Hydrological droughts and propagation times from meteorology to hydrology demonstrated substantial spatiotemporal variability. In general, summer propagation times were shorter than other seasons. (3) Propagation times were shorter in arid regions with cropland or built-up land cover versus grassland and woodland, while the reverse held for humid regions. (4) Human regulations prolonged propagation times, likely due to reservoir regulations designed to overcome water deficits. While the YRB is the focus of this paper, the methodologies and findings are applicable to other regions worldwide to enhance drought forecasting and water resource management. In various hydrological and climatic contexts worldwide.

Keywords: Drought evolution; Drought propagation; Hydrological drought; Influencing mechanism; Meteorological drought.

Abstract

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