Assessments of the soil environmental quality of farmland and pollution source apportionment are the foundation for ensuring national food security and agricultural sustainable development, as well as an important prerequisite for the pursuit to keep our lands clean. This study evaluated the characteristics of heavy metal pollution in farmland soils in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2023, based on the data of heavy metal contents including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn, using the geo-accumulation index method. Source apportionment was conducted by employing a positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The probabilistic health risks were evaluated by coupling Monte Carlo simulation with a human health risk assessment model, and priority pollution sources and elements were identified. The results showed that:① the average content of all heavy metals in farmland soils within the study area was lower than the screening values specified in the soil environment quality risk control standard for soil contamination of agriculture land (GB 15618-2018) (pH>7.5). However, the contents of Cd, As, and Zn in the samples exceeded their screening values, with percentages of 21.69%, 5.56%, and 1.23%, respectively, with Cd having the highest rate of exceedance. ② Hg and Cd were moderately polluted, Cu and Pb were slightly polluted, and the other elements were not polluted. ③ The main sources of heavy metals in farmland soil were traffic-industrial sources, natural-agricultural sources, industrial-natural sources, and agricultural-industrial sources, with contribution rates of 37.04%, 26.69%, 21.72%, and 14.55%, respectively. ④ Heavy metals in farmland soil posed carcinogenic health risks to adults and children but did not have non-carcinogenic risks; As and Cd were priority control elements for human health risks, and industrial-natural sources and agricultural-industrial sources were priority control sources in the study area.
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; Yellow River Basin; health risk assessment; positive matrix factorization (PMF) model; source apportionment.