Construction and validation of classification models for predicting the response to concurrent chemo-radiotherapy of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on multi-omics data

Abstract

Background: Concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) is the preferred non-surgical treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Unfortunately, some patients respond poorly, which leads to inappropriate or excessive treatment and affects patient survival. To accurately predict the response of ESCC patients to CCRT, we developed classification models based on the clinical, serum proteomic and radiomic data.

Methods: A total of 138 ESCC patients receiving CCRT were enrolled in this study and randomly split into a training cohort (n = 92) and a test cohort (n = 46). All patients were classified into either complete response (CR) or incomplete response (non-CR) groups according to RECIST1.1. Radiomic features were extracted by 3Dslicer. Serum proteomic data was obtained by Olink proximity extension assay. The logistic regression model with elastic-net penalty and the R-package "rms" v6.2-0 were applied to construct classification and nomogram models, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the models.

Results: Seven classification models based on multi-omics data were constructed, of which Model-COR, which integrates five clinical, five serum proteomic, and seven radiomic features, achieved the best predictive performance on the test cohort (AUC = 0.8357, 95 % CI: 0.7158-0.9556). Meanwhile, patients predicted to be CR by Model-COR showed significantly longer overall survival than those predicted to be non-CR in both cohorts (Log-rank P = 0.0014 and 0.027, respectively). Furthermore, two nomogram models based on multi-omics data also performed well in predicting response to CCRT (AUC = 0.8398 and 0.8483, respectively).

Conclusion: We developed and validated a multi-omics based classification model and two nomogram models for predicting the response of ESCC patients to CCRT, which achieved the best prediction performance by integrating clinical, serum Olink proteomic, and radiomic data. These models could be useful for personalized treatment decisions and more precise clinical radiotherapy and chemotherapy for ESCC patients.

Keywords: Classification model; Concurrent chemo-radiotherapy; Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; Multi-omics; Olink proximity extension assay; Radiomics.