Understanding viral infection dynamics in wildlife hosts can help forecast zoonotic pathogen spillover and human disease risk. Bats are particularly important reservoirs of zoonotic viruses, including some of major public health concern such as Nipah virus, Hendra virus, and SARS-related coronaviruses. Previous work has suggested that metapopulation dynamics, seasonal reproductive patterns, and other bat life history characteristics might explain temporal variation in spillover of bat-associated viruses into people. Here, we analyze viral dynamics in free-ranging bat hosts, leveraging a multi-year, global-scale viral detection dataset that spans eight viral families and 96 bat species from 14 countries. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models that explicitly control for important sources of variation, including geographic region, specimen type, and testing protocols, while estimating the influence of reproductive status on viral detection in female bats. Our models revealed that late pregnancy had a negative effect on viral shedding across multiple data subsets, while lactation had a weaker influence that was inconsistent across data subsets. These results are unusual for mammalian hosts, but given recent findings that bats may have high individual viral loads and population-level prevalence due to dampening of antiviral immunity, we propose that it would be evolutionarily advantageous for pregnancy to either not further reduce immunity or actually increase the immune response, reducing viral load, shedding, and risk of fetal infection. This novel hypothesis would be valuable to test given its potential to help monitor, predict, and manage viral spillover risk from bats.
Keywords: Chiroptera; coronavirus; reproductive biology; viral infection dynamics; virus surveillance; zoonotic spillover.