Evolution of drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought under the influences of climate change and human activities

Abstract

Understanding the propagation of agricultural droughts (AD) is important to comprehensively assess drought events and develop early warning systems. The present study aims to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to AD in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) over the 1950-2021 period using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI). In total, the YRB was classified into three groups of catchments for spring wheat and four groups of catchments for winter wheat based on different human influence degrees (HId). In addition, the entire study period was divided into periods with natural (NP), low (LP), and high (HP) impacts of human activities, corresponding to 1950-1971, 1972-1995, and 1996-2021, respectively. The results demonstrated the significance and credibility of the application of the natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method for drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in the YRB. Winter wheat showed a more pronounced drying trend than spring wheat under both MD and AD. The results showed meteorological drought intensity (MDI) and agricultural drought intensity (ADI) intensified for spring and winter wheat in NP, with correspondingly a short propagation time, followed by those in the LP and HP in catchments minimally impacted by human activities. On the other hand, increases in the MDI and ADI, as well as in their times, for both spring and winter wheat were observed from the LP to the HP in all catchments. The MDI, ADI, and their propagation times for winter wheat generally showed greater fluctuations than those for spring wheat. Human activities increasingly prolonged the drought propagation time. In contrast, climate change insignificantly shortened the drought propagation time.

Keywords: Agricultural drought; Climate change; Dynamic drought propagation; Human activities; Meteorological drought.