Objective: Individuals positive for anti-cyclic-peptide-antibodies (anti-CCP) and musculoskeletal complaints (MSK-C) are at risk for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In this study we aimed to investigate factors involved in arthritis progression.
Methods: Anti-CCP2-positive individuals with MSK-C referred to a rheumatologist were recruited. Individuals lacked arthritis at clinical and ultrasound examination and were followed for ≥three years or until clinical arthritis diagnosis. Blood samples from inclusion were analyzed for; nine anti-citrullinated-protein-antibody (ACPA) reactivities (citrullinated α-1-enolase, fibrinogen, filaggrin, histone, vimentin and tenascin peptides); 92 inflammation-associated proteins; and HLA-shared epitope alleles. Cox regression was applied to the data to identify independent predictors in a model.
Results: 267 individuals were included with median follow up of 49 months (IQR: 22-60). 101 (38%) developed arthritis after median 14 months (IQR: 6-27). The analysis identified that presence of at least one ACPA reactivity (HR 8.0, 95% CI 2.9-22), ultrasound detected tenosynovitis (HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.0-6.0), IL6 levels (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.8) and IL15-Rα levels (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9) are significant independent predictors for arthritis progression in a prediction model (Harrell's C 0.76 [SE 0.02], AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.89], cross-validated AUC 0.70 [95% CI 0.56-0.85]).
Conclusion: We propose a high-Risk-RA phase characterized by presence of ACPA reactivity, tenosynovitis, IL6, and IL15-Rα and suggest that these factors need to be further investigated for their biological effects and clinical values, to identify individuals at particular low risk and high risk for arthritis progression.
Keywords: Rheumatoid arthritis; anti-citrullinated protein antibody reactivities; biomarkers; risk phase.
© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.