End-to-end model-based trajectory prediction for ro-ro ship route using dual-attention mechanism

Abstract

With the rapid increase of economic globalization, the significant expansion of shipping volume has resulted in shipping route congestion, causing the necessity of trajectory prediction for effective service and efficient management. While trajectory prediction can achieve a relatively high level of accuracy, the performance and generalization of prediction models remain critical bottlenecks. Therefore, this article proposes a dual-attention (DA) based end-to-end (E2E) neural network (DAE2ENet) for trajectory prediction. In the E2E structure, long short-term memory (LSTM) units are included for the task of pursuing sequential trajectory data from the encoder layer to the decoder layer. In DA mechanisms, global attention is introduced between the encoder and decoder layers to facilitate interactions between input and output trajectory sequences, and multi-head self-attention is utilized to extract sequential features from the input trajectory. In experiments, we use a ro-ro ship with a fixed navigation route as a case study. Compared with baseline models and benchmark neural networks, DAE2ENet can obtain higher performance on trajectory prediction, and better validation of environmental factors on ship navigation.

Keywords: DAE2ENet; attention mechanism; end-to-end model; prediction; ship fixed route.