Personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring improves recurrence surveillance and management after curative resection of colorectal liver metastases: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Approximately 60% of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) experience relapse within 2 years after radical resection, previous studies have proven that repeat local treatment (LT) could prolong survival, however, it is difficult to seize the window for LT due to the lack of a high-sensitive surveillance method. In this study, the authors aim to examine the value of longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in guiding adjuvant chemotherapy, optimizing clinical surveillance strategy, and thereby improving CRLM outcomes.

Materials and methods: The authors conducted a prospective clinical trial using a personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA assay to monitor 60 CRLM patients undergoing resection with curative intent. Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples were collected after surgery. Blood samples were collected before surgery, 30 days after surgery (post-OP), and every third month until relapse or up to 2 years.

Results: A total of 394 plasma samples from 60 eligible patients were analyzed, with a median follow-up time of 31.3 months. Landmark analyses revealed that detectable ctDNA at post-OP (HR, 4.8), postadjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 6.0), and end-of-treatment (HR, 5.6) were associated with higher recurrence risk ( P <0.001). Post-OP ctDNA positivity served as the only independent prognostic marker in the multivariant analysis (HR, 5.1; P <0.001). Longitudinal ctDNA analysis identified relapsed patients at both sensitivity and specificity of 100%. Most (75%) patients were found with radiological relapse within 6 months after the first detectable ctDNA with a median lead time of 3.5 months. In relapsed patients, 73.2% had oligometastatic disease and 61% were liver-restricted, of which 72.0% received repeat LTs, and 60.0% achieved a secondary no evidence of disease status.

Conclusions: Longitudinal ctDNA monitoring assists in early prediction of relapse, and thereby improves survival of CRLM patients by increased secondary resection rate and secondary no evidence of disease rate.