This study aimed to assess the growth of Pseudomonas spp. and psychrotrophic bacteria in chilled Pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), a native South American fish, stored under chilling conditions (0 to 10 °C) through the use of predictive models under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. Growth kinetic parameters, maximum growth rate (μmax, 1/h), lag time (tLag, h), and (Nmax, Log10 CFU/g) were estimated using the Baranyi and Roberts microbial growth model. Both kinetic parameters, growth rate and lag time, were significantly influenced by temperature (P < 0.05). The square root secondary model was used to describe the bacteria growth as a function of temperature. Secondary models, √μ = 0.016 (T + 10.13) and √μ =0.017 (T + 9.91) presented a linear correlation with R2 values >0.97 and were further validated under non-isothermal conditions. The model's performance was considered acceptable to predict the growth of Pseudomonas spp. and psychrotrophic bacteria in refrigerated Pacu fillets with bias and accuracy factors between 1.24 and 1.49 (fail-safe) and 1.45-1.49, respectively. Fish biomarkers and spoilage indicators were assessed during storage at 0, 4, and 10 °C. Volatile organic compounds, VOCs (1-hexanol, nonanal, octenol, and indicators 2-ethyl-1-hexanol) showed different behavior with storage time (P > 0.05). 1H NMR analysis confirmed increased enzymatic and microbial activity in Pacu fillets stored at 10 °C compared to 0 °C. The developed and validated models obtained in this study can be used as a tool for decision-making on the shelf-life and quality of refrigerated Pacu fillets stored under dynamic conditions from 0 to 10 °C.
Keywords: Biomarkers; Chilling; Freshwater fish; Predictive microbiology; Shelf-life; Spoilage.
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