Purpose: Currently, there is a limited availability of tools to predict seizure recurrence after discontinuation of antiseizure medications (ASMs). This study aimed to establish the seizure recurrence rate following ASM cessation in adult patients with idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) and to assess the predictive performance of the Lamberink and the Stevelink prediction models using real-world data.
Methods: Retrospective longitudinal study in IGE patients who underwent ASM withdrawal in a tertiary epilepsy clinic since June 2011, with the latest follow up in January 2024. The minimum follow-up period was 12 months. Clinical and demographic variables were collected, and the seizure recurrence prediction models proposed by Lamberink and Stevelink were applied and evaluated.
Results: Forty-seven patients (mean age 33.15 ± 8 [20-55] years; 72.35 % women) were included. During the follow-up period, seizures recurred in 25 patients (53.2 %). Median time to recurrence was 8 months [IQR 3-13.5 months], and 17 patients (68 %) relapsed within the first year. None of the relapsing patients developed drug-resistant epilepsy. The only significant risk factor associated with recurrence was a seizure-free period of less than 2 years before discontinuing medication (91.7 % vs 40 %, p =.005). The Stevelink prediction model at both 2 (p =.015) and 5 years (p =.020) achieved statistical significance, with an AUC of 0.72 (95 % CI 0.56-0.88), while the Lamberink model showed inadequate prognostic capability.
Conclusion: In our real-world cohort, a seizure-free period of at least 2 years was the only factor significantly associated with epilepsy remission after ASM withdrawal. Larger studies are needed to accurately predict seizure recurrence in IGE patients.
Keywords: Antiseizure medication; Epilepsy remission; Idiopathic generalized epilepsy; Prediction tools.
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