Risk assessment of psychiatric complications in infectious diseases: CALCulation of prognostic indices on example of COVID-19

Mikhail Sorokin; Kirill Markin; Artem Trufanov; Mariia Bocharova; Dmitriy Tarumov; Alexander Krasichkov; Yulia Shichkina; Dmitriy Medvedev; Elena Zubova

doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1341666

Risk assessment of psychiatric complications in infectious diseases: CALCulation of prognostic indices on example of COVID-19

Front Psychiatry. 2024 Feb 15:15:1341666. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1341666. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Mikhail Sorokin¹, Kirill Markin², Artem Trufanov^{3

4

5}, Mariia Bocharova^{1

6}, Dmitriy Tarumov², Alexander Krasichkov⁷, Yulia Shichkina⁵, Dmitriy Medvedev⁸, Elena Zubova⁹

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Clinical Psychiatry, V.M.Bekhterev National Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Neurology, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
² Psychiatry Department, Kirov Military Medical Academy, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
³ Department of Neurology and Manual Medicine of the Faculty of Postgraduate Education, Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia.
⁴ Neurology Department, Kirov Military Medical Academy, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
⁵ Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Saint-Petersburg Electrotechnical University "LETI", Saint-Petersburg, Russia.
⁶ Department of Old Age Psychiatry, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
⁷ Radio Engineering Systems Department, Saint-Petersburg Electrotechnical University "LETI", Saint-Petersburg, Russia.
⁸ Research Centre "Saint Petersburg Institute of Bioregulation and Gerontology", Saint Petersburg, Russia.
⁹ Institute of Postgraduate Education, V.M.Bekhterev National Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Neurology, Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Abstract

Introduction: Factors such as coronavirus neurotropism, which is associated with a massive increase in pro-inflammatory molecules and neuroglial reactivity, along with experiences of intensive therapy wards, fears of pandemic, and social restrictions, are pointed out to contribute to the occurrence of neuropsychiatric conditions.

Aim: The aim of this study is to evaluate the role of COVID-19 inflammation-related indices as potential markers predicting psychiatric complications in COVID-19.

Methods: A total of 177 individuals were examined, with 117 patients from a temporary infectious disease ward hospitalized due to COVID-19 forming the experimental group and 60 patients from the outpatient department showing signs of acute respiratory viral infection comprising the validation group. The PLR index (platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio) and the CALC index (comorbidity + age + lymphocyte + C-reactive protein) were calculated. Present State Examination 10, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment were used to assess psychopathology in the sample. Regression and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, establishment of cutoff values for the COVID-19 prognosis indices, contingency tables, and comparison of means were used.

Results: The presence of multiple concurrent groups of psychopathological symptoms in the experimental group was associated (R² = 0.28, F = 5.63, p < 0.001) with a decrease in the PLR index and a simultaneous increase in CALC. The Area Under Curve (AUC) for the cutoff value of PLR was 0.384 (unsatisfactory). For CALC, the cutoff value associated with an increased risk of more psychopathological domains was seven points (sensitivity = 79.0%, specificity = 69.4%, AUC = 0.719). Those with CALC > 7 were more likely to have disturbances in orientation (χ² = 13.6; p < 0.001), thinking (χ² = 7.07; p = 0.008), planning ability (χ² = 3.91; p = 0.048). In the validation group, an association (R²_McF = 0.0775; p = 0.041) between CALC values exceeding seven points and the concurrent presence of pronounced anxiety, depression, and cognitive impairments was demonstrated (OR = 1.52; p = 0.038; AUC = 0.66).

Discussion: In patients with COVID-19, the CALC index may be used for the risk assessment of primary developed mental disturbances in the context of the underlying disease with a diagnostic threshold of seven points.

Keywords: ROC curve; SARS-CoV-2; biomarkers COVID-19; inflammation; psychopathology.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation by the Agreement № 075-15-2022-291 dated 15.04.2022 on the provision of a grant in the form of subsidies from the federal budget for the implementation of state support for the establishment and development of the world-class scientific center (Pavlov center Integrative physiology for medicine, high-tech healthcare, and stress-resilience technologies).