The assessment and characterization of trend accuracy, that is, the ability of a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system to correctly indicate the direction and rate of change (RoC) of glucose levels, has received comparatively little attention in the overall evaluation of CGM performance. As such, only few approaches that examine the trend accuracy have been put forward. In this article, we review existing approaches and propose the clinical trend concurrence analysis (CTCA) which is an adaptation of the conventional trend concurrence analysis. The CTCA is intended to directly evaluate the trend arrows displayed by the CGM systems by characterizing their agreement to suitably categorized comparator RoCs. Here, we call on manufactures of CGM systems to provide the displayed trend arrows for retrospective analysis. The CTCA classifies any deviations between the CGM trend and comparator RoC according to their risk for an adverse clinical event arising from a possibly erroneous treatment decision. For that, the existing rate error grid analysis and a specific set of trend arrow-based insulin dosing recommendations were used. The results of the CTCA are presented in an accessible graphical display and exemplified on data from three CGM systems. With this article, we hope to increase the awareness for the importance and challenges of assessing the accuracy of trend information displayed by CGM systems.
Keywords: clinical risk; concurrence analysis; continuous glucose monitoring; trend accuracy; trend arrow.