The present study strived to gain a more profound understanding of the distinctions in development between swimmers who are considered to be on track to the elite level at late junior age (males aged 16; females aged 15) compared to those who are not. In this effort, swimmers were followed during their pubertal years (males aged 13-15; females aged 12-14), which marks a period when performance development aligns with maturation. Longitudinal data of 90 talented sprint and middle-distance swimmers on season best times (SBT) and underlying performance characteristics (anthropometrics, maximal swimming velocity, stroke index [SI] and countermovement jump [CMJ]) were collected over three swimming seasons. Based on their SBT at late junior age (males aged 16; females aged 15), swimmers were classified as high-performing late juniors or lower-performing late juniors. Retrospectively studying these swimmers, we found that all but two high-performing late juniors were already on track to the elite level at early junior age (males aged 13; females aged 12), evidenced with faster SBT throughout puberty compared to their lower-performing peers (p < 0.05). Independent sample t-tests revealed that high-performing late juniors significantly outscored their lower-performing peers when they were early juniors on maximal swimming velocity (males aged 13-15 and females aged 12-14), SI (males aged 13 and 14; females aged 12), CMJ (females aged 14) and height (females aged 13 and 14, p < 0.05). Additionally, multilevel models showed faster rates of development for high-performing late juniors on maximal swimming velocity (males and females) and SI (males) compared to lower-performing peers throughout puberty (p < 0.05). Higher initial levels of SBT and underlying performance characteristics at early junior age as well as the faster rates of development on SBT, maximal swimming velocity and SI (males only) during the pubertal years, may be crucial factors in maintaining the trajectory towards the elite level after puberty.
Keywords: Acquisition of expertise; Competitive swimming; Growth and maturation; Longitudinal analysis; Talent development.