Deep Learning Prediction of Cervical Spine Surgery Revision Outcomes Using Standard Laboratory and Operative Variables

Abstract

Background: Cervical spine procedures represent a major proportion of all spine surgery. Mitigating the revision rate following cervical procedures requires careful patient selection. While complication risk has successfully been predicted, revision risk has proven more challenging. This is likely due to the absence of granular variables in claims databases. The objective of this study was to develop a state-of-the-art model of revision prediction of cervical spine surgery using laboratory and operative variables.

Methods: Using the Stanford Research Repository, patients undergoing a cervical spine procedure between 2016 and 2022 were identified (N = 3151), and recent laboratory values were collected. Patients were classified into separate cohorts by revision outcome and time frame. Machine and deep learning models were trained to predict each revision outcome from laboratory and operative variables.

Results: Red blood cell count, hemoglobin, hematocrit, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, red blood cell distribution width, platelet count, carbon dioxide, anion gap, and calcium all were significantly associated with ≥1 revision cohorts. For the prediction of 3-month revision, the deep neural network achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.833. The model demonstrated increased performance for anterior versus posterior and arthrodesis versus decompression procedures.

Conclusions: Our deep learning approach successfully predicted 3-month revision outcomes from demographic variables, standard laboratory values, and operative variables in a cervical spine surgery cohort. This work used standard laboratory values and operative codes as meaningful predictive variables for revision outcome prediction. The increased performance on certain procedures evidences the need for careful development and validation of one-size-fits-all risk scores for spine procedures.

Keywords: Cervical spine; Deep learning; Failed spine surgery; Laboratory test; Machine learning; Revision surgery.