Toward Predicting Interfacial Tension of Impure and Pure CO2-Brine Systems Using Robust Correlative Approaches

Abstract

In the context of global climate change, significant attention is being directed toward renewable energy and the pivotal role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. These innovations involve secure CO₂ storage in deep saline aquifers through structural and capillary processes, with the interfacial tension (IFT) of the CO₂-brine system influencing the storage capacity of formations. In this study, an extensive data set of 2811 experimental data points was compiled to model the IFT of impure and pure CO₂-brine systems. Three white-box machine learning (ML) methods, namely, genetic programming (GP), gene expression programming (GEP), and group method of data handling (GMDH) were employed to establish accurate mathematical correlations. Notably, the study utilized two distinct modeling approaches: one focused on impurity compositions and the other incorporating a pseudocritical temperature variable (Tcm) offering a versatile predictive tool suitable for various gas mixtures. Among the correlation methods explored, GMDH, employing five inputs, exhibited exceptional accuracy and reliability across all metrics. Its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values for testing, training, and complete data sets stood at 7.63, 7.31, and 7.38%, respectively. In the case of six-input models, the GEP correlation displayed the highest precision, with MAPE values of 9.30, 8.06, and 8.31% for the testing, training, and total data sets, respectively. The sensitivity and trend analyses revealed that pressure exerted the most significant impact on the IFT of CO₂-brine, showcasing an adverse effect. Moreover, an impurity possessing a critical temperature below that of CO₂ resulted in an elevated IFT. Consequently, this relationship leads to higher impurity concentrations aligning with lower Tcm values and subsequently elevated IFT. Also, monovalent and divalent cation molalities exhibited a growing influence on the IFT, with divalent cations exerting approximately double the influence of monovalent cations. Finally, the Leverage approach confirmed both the reliability of the experimental data and the robust statistical validity of the best correlations established in this study.