EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks

PLoS Comput Biol. 2024 Feb 21;20(2):e1011375. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011375. eCollection 2024 Feb.

Abstract

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Chickens
  • Epidemics*
  • Influenza in Birds* / epidemiology
  • Poultry
  • Zoonoses / epidemiology

Grants and funding

F.P., S.G., J.H., D.B., F.T., T.B., D.P., M.A.H. and G.F. are supported by the UKRI GCRF One Health Poultry Hub (Grant No. B/S011269/1), one of twelve interdisciplinary research hubs funded under the UK government’s Global Challenge Research Fund Interdisciplinary Research Hub initiative. G.F. is supported by the French National Research Agency and the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.