Coupling coordination and driving mechanisms of water resources carrying capacity under the dynamic interaction of the water-social-economic-ecological environment system

Xiaoyan Wang; Silong Zhang; Chao Gao; Xiongpeng Tang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171011

Coupling coordination and driving mechanisms of water resources carrying capacity under the dynamic interaction of the water-social-economic-ecological environment system

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Apr 10:920:171011. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171011. Epub 2024 Feb 17.

Authors

Xiaoyan Wang¹, Silong Zhang², Chao Gao³, Xiongpeng Tang³

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Geographical Sciences, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450015, China; Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: slzhang@bnu.edu.cn.
³ Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China; Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.

PMID: 38369138
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171011

Abstract

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a complex and comprehensive system that is jointly influenced by water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment. Previous WRCC studies have primarily focused on estimating the overall level of regional WRCC. Few studies have explored the interactions among the various elements in the WRCC system and their influence on the WRCC evolution. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is, on the one hand, to explore the dynamic interactive relationships within the WRCC system from the perspectives of water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment using a coupling coordination degree model and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, and on the other hand, to determine the evolutionary driving mechanism of the WRCC using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to improve the regional WRCC. Taking 21 cities in Guangdong Province as an example, the results show that (1) the coupling coordination degree among the four WRCC subsystems in Guangdong Province shows an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2020, and the coordination between water resources utilization and other subsystems needs to be further strengthened. (2) The economic subsystem is the core of the WRCC system with reinforcing effects on both water resources and social subsystems but significant inhibitory effects on the ecological environment subsystem. Notably, the development of the ecological environment plays a crucial role in promoting social and economic development. (3) From 2009 to 2020, the development of the WRCC in Guangdong Province is initially driven by social and economic development, followed by economic development and ecological environmental protection, and then mainly by ecological environmental protection, which gradually becomes the primary driving force. This study provides a new entry point for studying the regional WRCC and formulating targeted measures for enhancing the regional WRCC.

Keywords: Coupling coordination degree; Dynamic interaction between subsystems; Evolutionary driving mechanism; Panel vector autoregression.