Physical activity and Physical fitness in Prediction of all-cause Mortality and Age at Death in European Extinct Cohorts of middle-aged men followed for 60 Years

Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2024 Feb 15:zwae064. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwae064. Online ahead of print.

Abstract

Background: A study of the power of physical activity (Phyac) and physical fitness (Fitscore) in predicting very long-term all-cause mortality and age at death (AD) is missing.

Methods: A total of 5,482 middle-aged men were examined with measurement of several risk factors and followed for 60 years until virtual extinction of cohorts. Phyac in 3 classes was estimated from their type of work while Fitscore was derived from the linear combinations of levels of arm circumference, heart rate and vital capacity computed as a factor score by principal components analysis. Predictive power of these characteristics (adjusted for 5 traditional cardiovascular risk factors) was made by Cox models (for all-cause mortality) and multiple linear regression models (for AD).

Results: Single levels of the 3 indicators of fitness were highly related to the 3 levels of Phyac and of Fitscore. High levels of both Phyac and of Fitscore forced into the same models were associated with lower all-cause mortality and higher AD. Predictive power of Fitscore was systematically better than that of Phyac. Hazard ratios (high versus low) for all-cause mortality were 0.85 (Phyac) and 0.70 (Fitscore). Coefficients (all significant) were 2.25 years (Phyac) and 3.79 of AD by Fitscore. Fitscore was independently and significantly predictive of all-cause mortality for both first and second 30-year follow-up periods.

Conclusions: Phyac and Fitscore are related and both showed important predictive power for all-cause mortality and AD. The role of Fitscore was more powerful and both characteristics seem to be expressions of health status.

Keywords: age at death; extinct cohorts; mortality from all-causes; physical activity; physical fitness.

Plain language summary

Objectively measured physical fitness derived from linearly combined arm circumference, heart rate and vital capacity (Fitscore) may represent an improvement over classes of physical activity (Phyac) estimated from the type of work performed. What was comparatively assessed among 5,482 middle-aged men examined with measurement of several risk factors and followed for 60 years until virtual extinction of cohorts. Arm circumference, heart rate and vital capacity were highly related to the 3 levels of Phyac and of Fitscore. High levels of both Phyac and of Fitscore were associated with lower all-cause mortality and higher age at death (AD). The predictive power of Fitscore was systematically better than that of Phyac and comparing high versus low Phyac and Fitscore there was a statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality risk and AD, respectively 0.85 of hazard and 2.25 years (for Phyac) and 0.70 of hazard and 3.79 years (for Fitscore). Physical fitness is reportedly defined as the ability to carry out daily tasks with vigor and alertness, without undue fatigue and with ample energy to enjoy leisure-time pursuits and to meet unforeseen emergencies and might thus help to better assess long-term risk of all-cause mortality and higher AD when Fitscore based on arm circumference, heart rate and vital capacity are in the upper tertile. This is an improvement over Phyac that is reportedly defined as any bodily movement produced by skeletal muscles that results in energy expenditure. This study shows that Fitscore should be applied in day-to-day clinical/preventive cardiology practice.