Theory and data analysis of player and team ball possession time in football

Phys Rev E. 2024 Jan;109(1-1):014305. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.109.014305.

Abstract

In this study, the stochastic properties of player and team ball possession times in professional football matches are examined. Data analysis shows that player possession time follows a gamma distribution and the player count of a team possession event follows a mixture of two geometric distributions. We propose a formula for expressing team possession time in terms of player possession time and player count in a team's possession, verifying its validity through data analysis. Furthermore, we calculate an approximate form of the distribution of team possession time and study its asymptotic property.