Short-term Safety Performance Functions by Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley model for Part-time Shoulder Use

Abstract

Part-time Shoulder Use (PTSU) is a traffic management and operation strategy that allows the use of the left or right shoulder as a travel lane, typically during the peak hours of the day. Though PTSU is an effective strategy for increasing roadway capacity in congested traffic conditions, there is very limited quantitative information about PTSU design elements and operational strategy in the existing literature, which could impact the occurrence of crashes on freeways. This study contributes to the safety literature by analyzing various potential crash contributing factors related to PTSU operation and design elements through the development of short-term Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). A comparison of the estimated models demonstrated that by utilizing the mixed distribution and allowing the posterior parameter estimates of explanatory variables to vary from one observation to another, the Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley (RPNB-L) model outperformed the traditional NB and fixed coefficient NB-L models. The results of the proposed RPNB-L model indicated that the PTSU implemented sections experienced a lower number of traffic crashes compared to the non-PTSU freeway sections. Among the attributes related to PTSU operation and design elements, the usage of the leftmost shoulder lane as PTSU, the presence of emergency rest areas for damaged vehicles, and adequate shoulder width would significantly reduce crash frequency for the PTSU implemented freeways. Moreover, investigation of the identified hotspots revealed that the transition areas (start/end locations of PTSU) are the most critical sections. The findings from this research could assist transportation agencies to take appropriate countermeasures for preventing and reducing crash occurrences on PTSU implemented freeways.

Keywords: Hotspot Identification; Part-time Shoulder Use (PTSU); Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley (RPNB-L); Safety Performance Functions (SPFs).