Machine learning prediction models for in-hospital postoperative functional outcome after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to utilize machine learning (ML) and logistic regression (LR) models to predict surgical outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) based on admission examination, assisting in making optimal surgical treatment decision for these patients.

Method: We conducted a retrospective review of patients hospitalized in our department for moderate-to-severe TBI. Patients admitted between October 2011 and October 2022 were assigned to the training set, while patients admitted between November 2022 and May 2023 were designated as the external validation set. Five ML algorithms and LR model were employed to predict the postoperative Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) status at discharge using clinical and routine blood data collected upon admission. The Shapley (SHAP) plot was utilized for interpreting the models.

Results: A total of 416 patients were included in this study, and they were divided into the training set (n = 396) and the external validation set (n = 47). The ML models, using both clinical and routine blood data, were able to predict postoperative GOS outcomes with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.860 to 0.900 during the internal cross-validation and from 0.801 to 0.890 during the external validation. In contrast, the LR model had the lowest AUC values during the internal and external validation (0.844 and 0.567, respectively). When blood data was not available, the ML models achieved AUCs of 0.849 to 0.870 during the internal cross-validation and 0.714 to 0.861 during the external validation. Similarly, the LR model had the lowest AUC values (0.821 and 0.638, respectively). Through repeated cross-validation analysis, we found that routine blood data had a significant association with higher mean AUC values in all ML and LR models. The SHAP plot was used to visualize the contributions of all predictors and highlighted the significance of blood data in the lightGBM model.

Conclusion: The study concluded that ML models could provide rapid and accurate predictions for postoperative GOS outcomes at discharge following moderate-to-severe TBI. The study also highlighted the crucial role of routine blood tests in improving such predictions, and may contribute to the optimization of surgical treatment decision-making for patients with TBI.

Keywords: Machine learning; Prediction model; Routine blood test; Surgical outcome; Traumatic brain injury.