Determinants of health poverty vulnerability in rural areas of Western China in the post-poverty relief era: an analysis based on the Anderson behavioral model

Abstract

Background: Although China has eliminated absolute poverty, the effects of sickness still pose a threat to the prospect of returning to poverty in western rural areas. However, poverty governance extends beyond solving absolute poverty, and should enhance the family's ability to resist risks, proactively identify the existence of risks, and facilitate preventive measures to reduce the probability of falling into poverty again. This study aimed to assess the health poverty vulnerability of rural households in western China and decompose its determinants.

Methods: Based on survey data from 2022, the three-stage feasible generalized least squares method was used to calculate the health poverty vulnerability index. Then, Anderson's health behavior theory model was extended to analyse various influencing factors using binary logistic regression, and the contribution of each influencing factor was decomposed using the Shapley index. Finally, Tobit regression and the censored least absolute deviations estimation (clad) method were used to test the model's robustness.

Results: A total of 5455 families in the rural Ningxia region of western China were included in the study. The health poverty vulnerability index of the sample population in 2022 was 0.3000 ± 0.2223, and families with vulnerability ≥0.5 accounted for 16.9% of the sample population. From the Anderson behavioral model, the three models including propensity, enabling, and demand factors had the best fit, and the AIC and BIC values were the smallest. The Shapley decomposition showed that the dimensions of the propensity factor, number of residents, age and educational level of the household head, and dependency ratio were the most important factors influencing vulnerability to health poverty. Tobit regression and the clad method proved the reliability of the constructed model through a robustness test.

Conclusion: Rural areas still face the risk of becoming poor or falling into poverty owing to residents' health problems. Health poverty alleviation should gradually change from a focus on treatment to prevention, and formulate a set of accurate and efficient intervention policies from a forward-looking perspective to consolidate the results of health poverty alleviation and prevent widescale poverty return.

Keywords: Andersen’s behavioral model; China; Multivariate logistic regression analysis; Shapley decomposition; Vulnerability to health poverty.