Background: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are highly effective medications for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity. Pharmacological studies in rodents support an association between the use of GLP-1 RAs and the development of medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) resulting in a black box warning for these agents in patients at risk for this condition. Yet, the association between GLP-1 RAs and non-MTC remains controversial. Excessive worry about unproven thyroid cancer risk might lead to underutilizing GLP-1 RAs in patients who could otherwise experience substantial benefits. Unwarranted concerns about thyroid cancer could lead to unnecessary thyroid cancer screening and harms from overdiagnosis. Summary: The body of evidence assessing the association between GLP-1 RA use and thyroid cancer spans a wide range of methodologies, including basic and translational research investigating biological plausibility; randomized trials assessing clinical efficacy and providing the strongest evidence for causality; observational studies providing real-life outcome evaluation in larger populations but with limited evaluation of covariates or dependable outcome definitions; and pharmacovigilance studies that provide postmarketing assessments of a safety signal but do not address causality. There is biological plausibility supporting an association between GLP-1 RA and MTC in rodents, which is less clear for non-MTC in humans. Clinical evidence from randomized trials and associated meta-analysis suggest thyroid cancer as a rare event making effect estimates imprecise but without conclusive and consistent evidence of increase risk in those receiving GLP-1 RA. Observational studies at higher risk of bias also show low event rates for thyroid cancer, with effect estimates that are inconsistent among different studies. Pharmacovigilance studies consistently show a signal of increased reporting of thyroid cancer in patients treated with GLP-1 RA. Conclusions: Evidence from randomized controlled trials indicates occurrence of thyroid cancer is infrequent in individuals exposed to GLP-1 RA. Observational studies at higher risk of bias yield inconsistent results. Overall there is no conclusive evidence of elevated thyroid cancer risk. These findings can help clinicians when addressing patient's concerns about a potential yet unproven link between GLP-1 RA therapy and thyroid cancer.
Keywords: GLP-1 receptor agonist; medullary thyroid cancer; semaglutide; thyroid cancer.