Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

Baki Cissé; David R Lapen; K Chalvet-Monfray; Nicholas H Ogden; Antoinette Ludwig

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.002

Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

Infect Dis Model. 2024 Jan 18;9(1):278-297. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.002. eCollection 2024 Mar.

Authors

Baki Cissé^{1

2}, David R Lapen³, K Chalvet-Monfray^{4

5}, Nicholas H Ogden^{1

2}, Antoinette Ludwig^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Public Health Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, Canada.
² Groupe de Recherche en Épidémiologie des Zoonoses et Santé Publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada.
³ Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, K1A 0C6, Canada.
⁴ Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Marcy l'Etoile, France.
⁵ Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France.

Abstract

In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States. This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model. The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada, that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission. A Cellular Automata (CA) approach for multiple hosts (birds and humans) is used for a test region in eastern Ontario, Canada. The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity, host migration, and vector feeding preferences. We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 $k m^{2}$ rectangular cells. We used 2010-2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010-2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation. We considered heterogeneous bird densities (high and low suitability areas) and homogeneous mosquito and human densities. In high suitability areas for birds, we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds. We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software. The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics, supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito ( $c^{(B, M)})$ and mosquito natural mortality rate ( $d^{M}$ ), had a very limited effect on the total number of cases (newly infected birds and humans), prevalence peak, or date of occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.

Keywords: Cellular automata; Mosquito-borne diseases; SEIRDS-SEI modeling; West Nile Virus.