Prognostic nomogram model for selecting between transarterial chemoembolization plus lenvatinib, with and without PD-1 inhibitor in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Objectives: To establish and verify a prognostic nomogram model for selecting in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) treated by transarterial chemoembolization plus lenvatinib (TACE-L) with or without PD-1 inhibitor.

Methods: Data of 241 uHCC patients who underwent TACE-L (n = 128) and TACE-L plus PD-1 inhibitor (TACE-L-P, n = 113) were retrospectively reviewed. The differences in tumour responses, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs) between two groups were compared, and a prognostic nomogram model was established based on independent clinical-radiologic factors and confirmed by Cox regression analysis for predicting PFS and OS. The treatment selection for uHCC patients was stratified by the nomogram score.

Results: Compared to TACE-L, TACE-L-P presented prolonged PFS (14.0 vs. 9.0 months, P < .001), longer OS (24.0 vs. 15.0 months, P < .001), and a better overall objective response rate (54.0% vs. 32.8%, P = .001). There was no significant difference between the rate of AEs in the TACE-L-P and the TACE-L (56.64% vs. 46.09%, P = .102) and the rate of grade ≥ 3 AEs (11.50% vs. 9.38%, P = .588), respectively. The nomogram model presented good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.790 for predicting PFS and 0.749 for predicting OS. Patients who underwent TACE-L and obtained a nomogram score >9 demonstrated improved 2-year PFS when transferred to TACE-L-P, and those with a nomogram ≤25 had better 2-year OS when transferred to TACE-L-P.

Conclusions: TACE-L-P showed significant improvements in efficiency and safety for uHCC patients compared with TACE-L. The nomogram was useful for stratifying treatment decisions and selecting a suitable population for uHCC patients.

Advances in knowledge: Prognostic nomogram model is of great value in predicting individualized survival benefits for uHCC patients after TACE-L or/and TACE-L-P. And the nomogram was helpful for selection between TACE-L-P and TACE-L among uHCC patients.

Keywords: PD-1 inhibitor; hepatocellular carcinoma; lenvatinib; nomogram model; transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).